South Africa, already entangled in complex negotiations to reduce the 30% tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration, now faces an additional challenge to use its critical minerals as bargaining chip with the demanding US President.
This as South Africa’s vast reserves of critical minerals are set to emerge as a strategic focal point as US-South African trade negotiations are geared to move beyond conventional tariff disputes.
The key question now is whether Pretoria will yield to Trump’s transactional diplomacy.
South Africa’s position has been complicated by AGOA, a U.S. trade initiative that grants duty-free access to African countries, which expired on 30 September and is now up for renewal. The talks have to include South Africa’s future in AGOA. But under Trump, the renewal process is expected to be highly selective, with the administration prioritising agreements that maximise financial returns for the United States.
Concerns have mounted among right-wing opposition figures who fear that South Africa may be excluded from the renewed deal. Conservative members of the U.S. Congress have long lobbied for South Africa’s removal from AGOA, even during the Biden administration. Many observers anticipated that Trump’s return to office would result in punitive measures against Pretoria, including its expulsion from the trade agreement.
South Africa has reaped substantial benefits from AGOA, particularly through the export of agricultural products such as macadamia nuts, citrus fruits, and wines. Other key exports include automobiles, auto parts, textiles, jewellery, and precious stones. The duty-free access to the U.S. market, fuelled economic growth and generated employment in both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
However, recent tariff increase has disrupted this momentum, with the agricultural and automotive industries bearing the brunt—prompting a wave of job layoffs as companies adjust to the new trade constraints. South Africa has to stem this tide by negotiating for a reduced tariff and its readmission to the AGOA agreement, which expired on September 30 and due for renewal with reports that South Africa may be excluded from it.
South Africa has to stem this tide by negotiating for a reduced tariff and its readmission to the AGOA agreement
But in Trump’s tactical deal-making, South Africa’s critical minerals are the Bull’s Eye and key to strengthening the United States’ strategic options. His administration would push for mineral to centre the ongoing trade dialogue with South Africa.
With President Cyril Ramaphosa desperate to reset the SA-US relations which dipped since Trump returned to the White House for a second bite in January 2025. To the US the relations have to be bolder and deeper – going beyond just reducing tariffs.
The US position was reflected a few years ago by former US Ambassador to South Africa, Lana Marks, a Trump’s first term appointee, who once stated US would never be satisfied in being South Africa’s second trading partner to China. Washington wants to occupy the top spot in its trade relations with Pretoria.
The current rush to improve SA-US ties emanate from South Africa’s concern over the impact of the US tariff hike to its economy and job losses. Even the leftwing ANC-aligned trade union federation, Congress of South Africa Trade Unions (COSATU), is hopeful about the positive results of the unfolding trade talks.
“We are heartened by the progress being made in the negotiations between the two governments,” says the federation’s parliamentary co-ordinator, Matthews Parks.
South Africa’s trade union movement has expressed particular concern over the potential employment fallout linked to rising tariffs and South Africa’s possible exclusion from the AGOA. Their focus centres on the risk of job losses in export-reliant sectors, which could be exacerbated by diminished U.S. market access. “We simply cannot afford any further job losses in an economy battling a 42.9% unemployment rate and that has barely been growing at 1% per annum for the last two decades,” Parks said.
Although South Africa’s area of compromise remains uncertain, a trio of Afrikaners —Freedom Front Plus leader Corne Mulder, along with businessmen Andre Pienaar and Chris Opperman offered a solution to end the tariffs impasse with US.
Their precise proposals that align with Trump’s demands from South Africa suggest they had some direct audience with the US president. They were part of delegations who visited the United States to help ease tension. It’s striking that the trio seem to possess first-hand insight into his expectations, with what sounds like specific details of what the US leader needs.
Trump is eager for South Africa to unlock its mineral wealth in ways that could help drive the U.S. technological advancement.
According to them, Trump is eager for South Africa to unlock its mineral wealth in ways that could help drive the U.S. technological advancement. “We are of the view that South Africa has an opportunity to support the United States in building resilient supply chain for the technologies that will define the next 30 years – semiconductors, batteries, aerospace and defence. The US needs trusted partners who can deliver both critical minerals and processing at scale,” their joint statement, written from Washington on 30 September, said.
They cited Trump’s statement during the Trump-Ramaphosa Oval Office encounter in May when he said, “We can help, and we want to help,” signalling a willingness to support South Africa under the right conditions.
Mulder, Pienaar, and Opperman underscore the importance of a mineral-focused agreement between South Africa and the United States. They propose five pillars designed to align with Trump’s priorities, aiming to stimulate mutual benefits and enhance U.S. investment in South Africa.
Among these are U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and private equity-driven coal refinancing initiatives, intended to deliver stable energy output for smelters and refineries —ultimately generating employment opportunities for South Africans. They propose for South Africa to invest R20 billion from the Public Investment Corporation into U.S. agriculture, with the aim of fostering a two-way skills exchange between American and South African farmers.
They argue South Africa is positioned to lead in the development of minerals-backed digital assets—a subtle proposal that South African mineral resources could support the expansion of the U.S. digital economy. They advocate for a “minerals-first” agreement that could yield extraordinary benefits for South Africa, potentially boosting its GDP by $40 billion and generating approximately 500,000 jobs across sectors such as mining, processing, energy, logistics, and services.
This growth, they say could drive a consistent annual economic expansion of 5% and significantly reduce unemployment over time. Additionally, the fixed investment rate is projected to rise from 15% to 25%, further reinforcing economic momentum. FF Plus contends that such a transformation would not only stabilise South Africa’s economy but also strengthen its democratic foundations.
The three are confident that minerals-centred outcome would justify reducing South African general tariff rate to 10% and enable it to keep its privileges under AGOA. “With an open door to the White House, this is the opportune time to secure a watershed deal with the Trump Administration, one that will deliver prosperity for South Africans and Americans alike and for generations to come,” they said.
Whether President Trump is using Afrikaner leaders to gauge the South African government’s openness to a minerals-linked deal remains uncertain.
What is clear, however, is that Afrikaners have emerged as his trusted intermediaries in navigating South African affairs. Notably, he placed his confidence in AfriForum, a small, right-wing NGO, to persuade him that Afrikaners are being oppressed by the black government, a claim that led to his support for sanctions against South Africa, despite the allegations being unfounded.
The question now is whether Ramaphosa and his Trade Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau, who led the trade talks with the US, will agree to redirect South Africa’s vast reserves of critical minerals to align with U.S. strategic interests. Should they concede, it would mark a significant geopolitical win for Washington, potentially allowing the U.S. to outmanoeuvre China — currently South Africa’s largest trading partner.
