The African National Congress (ANC), the dominant party in South Africa’s ten-party Government of National Unity, is grappling with leadership uncertainty.
This as speculation about a potential resignation by President Cyril Ramaphosa, who also serves as ANC president, has intensified concerns over the absence of a clear successor. These rumors were sparked by recent media reports but were swiftly dismissed by the ANC’s Department of Information and Publicity and analysts.
Although Deputy President Paul Mashatile is widely regarded as the likely successor to Ramaphosa—both as leader of the ANC and as head of state—uncertainty continues to cloud his position. Mashatile is currently entangled in a series of controversies, including allegations of corruption.
After initially denying ownership, Mashatile later admitted to owning the house.
One notable case involves a property in Cape Town’s affluent Constantia suburb, which he failed to declare in accordance with Parliamentary rules. After initially denying ownership, Mashatile later admitted to owning the house. Opposition parties have since called for him to be charged with breaching the Parliamentary Ethics Code. Additional scandals and corruption allegations have also surfaced, dating back to his tenure as a Member of the Executive Council in Gauteng Province. Within and outside the ANC many are gunning for his head.
Many within the ANC have dismissed the possibility Mashatile ascending to the party’s top leadership role. Although he is nominally positioned to succeed Ramaphosa at the ANC’s national conference — where the next cohort of National Executive Committee (NEC) members will be elected by party branches at the next conference scheduled December 2027.
Historically, the ANC has sought to avoid a scenario in which the party president and the head of state are two different individuals
Nonetheless, speculation over Ramaphosa’s successor was reignited by media reports suggesting he may step down after the G20 leaders’ summit in Johannesburg in November. Neither Ramaphosa nor the Presidency has confirmed or denied these claims. However, political analysts have largely dismissed the reports as improbable, citing Ramaphosa’s current strong standing as both head of state and ANC president.
Ramaphosa is nearing the end of his tenure as ANC president, with his second and final term set to conclude in December 2027. However, this does not mark the end of his role as President of the Republic, which is expected to continue until the national parliamentary elections in 2029. Historically, the ANC has sought to avoid a scenario in which the party president and the head of state are two different individuals—a duality that once defined its leadership structure.
This changed dramatically in 2007 when Jacob Zuma was elected ANC president. His newly appointed NEC swiftly moved to consolidate power, pressuring then-President Thabo Mbeki to resign in September 2008 so Zuma could assume both roles. Zuma’s leadership effectively ended the era of dual centres of power, establishing a precedent where the ANC president also serves as the country’s president.
This was a departure from earlier practice. For instance, when Thabo Mbeki became ANC president in 1997, Nelson Mandela remained head of state until the end of his term in 1999. Mbeki only assumed the presidency of the Republic thereafter, maintaining a clear separation between party and state leadership during that transitional period.
Jacob Zuma did not wait for Thabo Mbeki to complete his term. Although Mbeki was set to step down in 2009, just six months later, during the national and provincial elections, he was abruptly recalled by the Zuma-led ANC. At the time, Zuma was not yet ready to assume the presidency, prompting the party to appoint Kgalema Motlanthe as a caretaker president. Mbeki’s removal was widely viewed as a humiliating political snub.
Ironically, after serving nine of a ten-year term as President, Zuma himself was recalled in early 2018, but the Ramaphosa-led party, one year before his term was due to end and replaced by Ramaphosa. This turn of events mirrored the very tactics Zuma had once benefited from.
Ramaphosa could be removed before his national term concludes in 2029.
Whether the ANC leadership will be tempted to recall Ramaphosa when his party presidency ends in 2027 remains uncertain. However, if the precedent set by the last two transitions holds, it is plausible that Ramaphosa could be removed before his national term concludes in 2029.
Yet, the question of succession is far from settled. Mashatile, while a leading potential contender, faces significant resistance from within the ANC and across opposition parties. Several opposition leaders have also openly opposed the idea of Mashatile ascending to the presidency, with some even threatening legal action should the ANC allow him to contest or occupy the position.
ANC deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane has already declared her intention to contest the party presidency. Meanwhile, current secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, long considered a frontrunner for the position, has yet to make his ambitions public. Though he remains silent for now, Mbalula is widely viewed as a stronger contender than Mokonyane.
Since 2017, ANC presidential races have drawn multiple candidates, often more than half a dozen. The upcoming 2027 national conference is expected to follow suit, with a crowded field vying for the top position. Traditionally, the ANC deputy president is regarded as the heir apparent. Since Nelson Mandela’s presidency in the early 90s, every deputy has eventually ascended to the party’s highest office.
Should Mashatile be denied the succession, he would become the first deputy president to break that precedent.
These leadership dynamics are unfolding at a time of unprecedented vulnerability for the ANC. Following its loss of the parliamentary majority in the May 2024 elections, the party now governs as part of a coalition with nine other parties under the Government of National Unity. The era of ANC dominance in Parliament and executive leadership has ended, and current trends suggest that coalition governments will define South Africa’s political landscape for the foreseeable future.
